Cybersecurity During the Holidays

With the holidays fast approaching, many people are getting ready to visit family, take a long-awaited vacation, and shop for gifts. However, the hustle and bustle of the season can also increase your exposure to cyber threats, as hackers seize opportunities to exploit heightened online activity.

Here are some suggestions that can help protect you and your data and keep you cybersafe:

Strengthen Your Login Credentials
When logging in to your online accounts, the following  methods can be effective in defending yourself against a data breach:

  • Use long passwords or passphrases. Make your passwords at least 15 characters long, focusing on something memorable but difficult to guess. Length matters more than complexity, although many websites do require a mix of upper-case and lower-case letters, numbers, and symbols.
  • Update your password if it’s been compromised. While you don’t need to change your passwords routinely, you can use a trusted tool, such as “Have I Been Pwned,” to check your passwords against known data breaches.
  • Use a unique password for every account. Never reuse passwords. A password manager app can safely generate and store them for you, so you don’t need to keep track.
  • Enable multi-factor authentication (MFA) wherever possible. This provides an extra layer of protection by utilizing additional authentication methods such as a code sent via text or email, an authenticator app, or a security question.

Think Before You Share
Be mindful about what you and your family post on social media, especially when you travel.

  • Wait until your trip is over to post vacation photos. By sharing real-time updates about your location, you may inadvertently alert criminals that your home is unattended.
  • Be cautious about sharing personal information, including audio or video content. Hackers are increasingly using AI tools to create convincing fake content to execute phishing and other scams.
  • Take time to review your network, remove unfamiliar connections, and adjust your privacy settings to control who can see your posts.

Use Secure Connections
When you’re in a public location, such as an airport or cafe, using unsecured Wi-Fi can make your information vulnerable.

  • Use a virtual private network (VPN) to encrypt your data, particularly to execute financial transactions or access sensitive data.
  • When in doubt, use your mobile data connection, which is typically safer.
  • Regularly update your devices with the latest software and security patches.

Shop Online with Caution
As online shopping surges during the holidays, cybercriminals gear up to take advantage – for example, setting up fake e-commerce websites designed to steal your personal and financial information.

  • Make sure you shop trusted retailers by typing their URL directly into your browser rather than clicking the link in a promotional email.
  • Ensure the websites you visit use secure encryption (URL should include “https”).
  • Use a credit card that offers buyer protection.
  • Review your statements for suspicious charges.
  • Reconsider storing your payment information on the retailer’s site which can expose you to greater risk should the company suffer a data breach.

Lock Your Digital Wallet
While digital wallets offer a convenient method for making purchases, they also present risks should you lose your phone.

  • Lock your phone and/or your wallet, requiring a face scan, fingerprint, or password to access your account.
  • Enable the “find my phone” feature as well as transaction alerts so you receive purchase notifications.
  • Carefully review your statement to ensure there are no fraudulent charges.

Beware of Skimming
Criminals can also steal your data using skimming devices secretly installed in ATM machines, point-of-sale terminals, and fuel pumps.

  • Choose a gas pump or point-of-sale terminal in view of an attendant and an ATM in a well-lit, high-traffic location inside a business or bank branch.
  • When it’s an option, tap to pay instead of inserting your card into the reader.
  • Look for signs of tampering, such as a loose or damaged keypad or card reader.

Enjoy the Holidays, Safely
Taking a few simple precautions can go a long way toward protecting your data and giving you peace of mind so you can focus your attention on enjoying friends, family, and some well-deserved rest.

If you have concerns about your financial security, don’t hesitate to contact your Crestwood team for guidance. Not yet a Crestwood client? Please reach out to contact us. We are here to help.

 

Source: National Institute of Standards and Technology U.S. Department of Commerce. (2025, August 20). How Do I Create a Good Password? And what else can I do to secure my online accounts? https://www.nist.gov/cybersecurity/how-do-i-create-good-password

This document is provided for general informational purposes only by Crestwood Advisors, an investment adviser. Crestwood Advisors does not endorse, sponsor, or promote any of the products or companies listed or mentioned in this material. Any references to specific products or services are purely incidental and are included solely to illustrate potential strategies or concepts. The inclusion of such references does not imply any form of partnership, relationship, or approval by the Firm.

Be Proactive in This Year’s “Season of Giving”

The final months of the year are often called the “season of giving,” a time when generosity peaks during the holidays. But this year you may want to plan your charitable giving a little earlier than usual.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), recently passed by Congress, mandates some important tax law changes that take effect in 2026. Ignoring these changes this year risks leaving both your finances and your favorite causes shortchanged.

The New Rules Ahead
Starting in 2026, the rules governing charitable deductions shift in ways that may reduce the tax efficiency of gifts for many taxpayers:

  • New floor for itemizers: Only donations above 0.5% of your adjusted gross income (AGI) will be deductible. Smaller, routine gifts may no longer yield tax benefits.
  • Deduction cap for high earners: For those in the 37% tax bracket, charitable deductions will be limited to a maximum tax savings of thirty-five cents on the dollar, reducing some incentives for larger gifts.
  • Universal deduction reinstated, but still modest: Non-itemizers will be allowed to deduct up to $1,000 ($2,000 for joint filers) for cash gifts, but this benefit is small and not indexed to inflation.
  • Higher estate/gift tax exemption: The OBBBA sets the lifetime estate/gift tax exemption at an increased $15 million per individual or $30 million per married couple (indexed for inflation). A high federal estate tax exemption leaves fewer subject to estate tax and therefore less motivated to do large scale charitable planning for tax mitigation purposes.

Why Initiative-taking Planning Matters Now
Because the OBBBA changes take effect in 2026, 2025 is a pivotal year. Donors who plan ahead during this year’s season of giving can take advantage of the current, more favorable rules while they still apply. Steps you might consider now include:

  • Front-loading: If you are in the highest tax bracket, you might consider front-loading large future or multi-year gifts in 2025 to lock in the full 37% deduction.
  • Bunching: To overcome the 0.5% floor in 2026, consider combining or “bunching” multiple years of smaller charitable gifts into one year so that the total amount donated exceeds the threshold and yields the full deduction. Consider donating appreciated stock, or other non-cash assets that help exceed the floor while providing other tax benefits.
  • QCDs: If you are age 70½ or older and have a traditional IRA, making charitable gifts via Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs) remain untouched by both the .5% floor or the 35% ceiling discussed above. Because the distribution is made directly to a charity, you avoid recognizing the amount as taxable income and bypass the deduction limit issues.

A Call to Thoughtful Giving
In 2025, the season of giving is also a season of transition. Donors who act now may be better positioned to support their chosen causes while preserving the maximum value of their contributions.

Determining the right course of action for your charitable giving strategy can be complex, especially in this year of change. Your Crestwood team can work with you and your tax advisor to determine the best strategy for your situation. Planning today ensures your generosity goes further, both this year and for many years to come.

If you are not yet working with Crestwood, please reach out.

 

This document is provided for general informational purposes only by Crestwood Advisors, an investment adviser. Crestwood Advisors does not provide legal advice, and this document should not be construed as containing legal advice. For legal advice, consult with a licensed attorney. This document should not be construed as containing tax advice. For tax advice, consult with your tax adviser.

October 2025 Economic Update: The Fed Cut Rates and Closing Time for the US Government

One Small Cut, More to Come
In last month’s Economic Update, we identified four areas of particular interest regarding the upcoming September meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The Interest Rate Decision
We expected the Committee would lower the federal funds rate by 0.25% to 4.00% -4.25% based on a generally held view that the economy was slowing. In a nearly unanimous 11-1 decision, members voted to drop rates by a quarter percent. The lone dissenter was the newly appointed Fed Governor, Stephan Miran, who was in favor of a more aggressive 0.50% reduction.

Forward Guidance
The FOMC updated its Statement of Economic Projections (SEP), commonly referred to as the “Dot Plot,” at the September meeting.

As noted last month, the SEP outlines where individual Fed members expect inflation and interest rates to trend over the coming quarters and provides members’ future year-end target ranges. Investors watch the Dot Plot closely for insight into the Fed’s future policy path and interest rate expectations which, in turn, influence everything from bond yields to equity valuations.

The chart below shows the updated SEP dot plot for September. Each blue dot on the chart represents the opinion of one of the 19 FOMC participants.
September 2025 Fed Dot Plot Showing Projected Target Range of Fed Funds Rate and moves per calendar year (Green Arrows)

Source: September 17, 2025 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections and Bondsavvy calculations.

The median of the September dot plot projections sees the Fed Funds rate falling by a further 0.5% in 2025, an additional 0.25% in 2026 and 2027.

The dot plots as a group have shifted down 0.25% for each calendar year, apart from the outlier (Miran) who projected a significantly lower rate in 2025 and 2027 than the rest of the FOMC.

Dissent!
Stephen Miran, who formerly served as Chairman of Economic Advisers in the current Trump Administration, argued the Federal Funds rate is currently about 2% too high, proposing that structural shifts in immigration, tariffs, regulation, and tax policy have pushed the “neutral” rate downward. The neutral rate is the theoretical “sweet spot” where the economy has both full employment and stable inflation.

Miran asserted that the inflationary pressure from policy changes is overstated, especially pressure attributed to tariffs, and that more aggressive easing is necessary to forestall deterioration in labor markets.

While Miran’s views are consistent with those of the Administration, they stand in contrast to the majority view on the FOMC that changes to American policy (tariffs, immigration) continue to be a near-term reinflationary risk.

Inflation and Labor Market Trends
Powell emphasized that while inflation has eased from its peaks, it “remains somewhat elevated,” especially noting that goods prices have driven part of the pickup in inflation recently. PCE rose 2.0% over the 12 months ending in August.   While overall unemployment remains low, Powell described it as a “low-firing, low-hiring environment” noting that younger people entering the workforce are having a hard time finding work.

Overall, economic data is somewhat mixed. Labor markets are slowing, but not collapsing, which is consistent with the Fed lowering interest rates. However, the economy seems to be humming along. Q2 GDP came in at 3.8% quarter over quarter, boosted by healthy consumption. The US consumer continues to spend.  Forecasts for Q3 show this trend continuing.  According to the Atlanta Fed, the GDPNow forecast for Q3 is projected to come in at 3.8%, which suggests the economy is still on reasonable footing, even if the economic terrain appears uneven.

Closing Time – The Federal Government Shuts Down (Again)
Effective October 1st, the Federal Government has shut down.

Over the last 50 years, the US government has shut down a remarkable 21 times. Most shutdowns have been brief, lasting only a few days.

The current shutdown is interesting for several reasons:

  • In the past, these typically occurred at times when Congress had already passed some funding resolutions, so the shutdown only impacted a subset of government agencies. In the current case, Congress has not passed any annual spending bills, so this would result in funding for all agencies to lapse.
  • Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought has indicated that in addition to the usual furloughs, the administration may start to permanently fire federal employees in the days to come.
  • The longest shutdown of the last 50 years was the most recent one: December 2018’s 35-day shutdown during the previous Trump administration.

What are the Effects of a Shutdown?
The immediate effect is furlough – temporary unemployment – of ~40% of federal employees considered non-essential. Furloughed employees are reimbursed for lost pay when they return to work. These employees hold a variety of roles across the economy, so their absence manifests in a host of ways: travelers would expect longer travel times at the airport (fewer TSA employees), potential changes at the grocery store (fewer USDA food inspectors), closures of national parks (fewer park workers) and so forth. If the shutdown is brief, the economic disruption is primarily felt by the furloughed Federal workers.

Historically, financial markets have typically shrugged off government shutdowns. Goldman Sachs notes that 10 yr Treasury yields and the USD, which are a barometer of the global financial system’s faith in the smooth functioning of the US government, have typically weakened following government shutdowns and subsequently taken time to recover once the government reopens. However, these effects are not long-lasting.

US equity markets have likewise seen muted impacts from shutdowns, as shown in the chart below:

When might we see a resolution?
There is no reliable way to predict the duration of the shutdown. Military pay, which stands to be impacted this time around, has historically encouraged a deadline for reopening. The first military pay date at risk is October 15th. Another deadline for a possible resolution could be the second week of October, when funding for the Women Infants and Children (WIC) nutrition program is set to run out of money.

Given the uncertain, and likely temporary market impact associated with the shutdown, we recommend clients maintain their long-term investment focus and avoid a change in strategy as a result of the current shutdown.

Capital Markets
As the Fed moved to cut rates, all boats rose with the tide in September. Equity markets saw the biggest moves, with the All Country World Index (ACWI) rising 3.7%. The S&P 500 was slightly behind, climbing 3.6% for the month. Emerging market equities surged 7.2% while International Developed stocks, as measured by the EAFE, increased by 2%. US Small Cap equities, measured by the Russell 2000, had another strong month, increasing by 3.1%. US bond prices rose 1.1% for the month.

Source: Bloomberg. EAFE is MSCI EAFE Index(1), Emerging Markets is MSCI Emerging Markets(2) and U.S. Bonds is Barclays U.S. Aggregate(3). ACWI is the MSCI ACWI Index(4). Small Caps is the Russell 2000 Index(5). S&P 500 is the S&P 500 Index(6). The above information is as of 9/30/2025.

 

Crestwood Advisors Earns Spot on Forbes/SHOOK Top RIA List for Fourth Consecutive Year

Boston-based firm climbs to No. 56 in 2025 national ranking of leading wealth managers

BOSTON (October 2, 2025) – Crestwood Advisors (“Crestwood”), a boutique investment advisory and wealth management firm based in Boston and with offices in Connecticut and Rhode Island, is proud to announce its inclusion on the Forbes/SHOOK America’s Top RIA Firms list for the fourth consecutive year.

Crestwood ranked No. 56 in 2025, moving up from No. 59 in 2024, underscoring the firm’s steady growth and enduring commitment to client service.

“Our place on this list is a direct reflection of the trust our clients put in us,” said Crestwood President and Managing Partner Leah R. Sciabarrasi, CFP®. “We’re honored to be recognized nationally for delivering advice that helps families and institutions achieve lasting financial confidence.”

The Forbes ranking, developed by SHOOK Research, identifies the nation’s top 250 registered investment advisors (RIAs) in the U.S. through a rigorous combination of qualitative and quantitative measures. The evaluation process considers factors such as assets under management, revenue growth, compliance records, and client service. This year, SHOOK received more than 50,000 nominations and conducted over 33,000 interviews with advisors and firm leaders to determine the final list.

Now in its fourth year, the Forbes/SHOOK Top RIA Firms list continues to spotlight wealth management firms that set the standard for excellence. Collectively, the 250 firms honored in 2025 oversee more than $1.9 trillion in assets, reflecting the strength and depth of the independent advisory community. The full methodology for the ranking can be found here.

Crestwood did not pay a fee to appear on the published list or to market the award.

Please view Crestwood Advisors’ list of important disclosures regarding awards and recognitions here.