Yesterday’s unexpected election result causes investors to wonder what can be expected over the next few years from a Trump presidency and a divided country. This election has been highly emotional and personal, leaving many of us bleary-eyed and uncertain about the future. The high level of emotion in this election is reflected in global stock markets, which initially sold off on Wednesday following Trump’s victory only to recover strongly as the day progressed. At Crestwood we know that emotions and investing don’t mix well. We try to look past the rhetoric to analyze potential long term outcomes of the election.
Markets don’t like uncertainty and global stock markets initially sold off in reaction to Trump’s surprise victory. Adding to investors’ unease has been Trump’s avalanche of eye-popping rhetoric throughout the campaign. Trump wants to fire Janet Yellen, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and even suggested renegotiating the U.S. debt obligations. These comments are a small sample of his suggested changes that concern investors. With all of these comments long on rhetoric and short on details we are left speculating, for the moment, on how a Trump presidency will affect the markets. Continue reading
Why the anger? It’s the economy
One of the many notable characteristics of this unconventional presidential race is the broad-base populist uprising from both the left and right. Across the U.S., pockets of workers are fed up with dead-end jobs and stagnant wages. This anti-trade theme has resonated across both parties and will likely force changes in government policy, no matter who wins the election.
The primary cause of frustration is that workers across the U.S., especially those younger and less skilled, have faced falling standards of living since the Great Recession. A McKinsey report[ref] Poorer than their parents? A new perspective on income inequality
By Richard Dobbs, Anu Madgavkar, James Manyika, Jonathan Woetzel, Jacques Bughin, Eric Labaye, and Pranav Kashyap, McKinsey Global Institute, July 2016 [/ref] estimates that 81% of the U.S. population experienced flat or falling incomes from 2005 to 2014. The report shows similar results internationally with over 65% of households in 25 developed economies facing flat or decreased real income during the same time period. This equates to over 540 million people worldwide whose quality of life has not improved, many of whom are voicing their anger in elections. As we see in the U.S., these concerns are being integrated into both parties’ platforms. One only needs to look at Britain’s surprise Brexit vote to understand that these ‘new’ political forces should not be taken lightly. Continue reading